Mathematical model comparisons of potential non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae vaccine effects.

Vaccines to prevent acute otitis media (AOM) caused by non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) are under development. Because NTHi is highly variable and colonization rates are high, special vaccine characteristics and trial designs might be needed. We examined in mathematical models the equilibrium NTHi-caused AOM rate given hypothetical vaccines that generated immunity identical to corresponding maximal naturally acquired immunity. Vaccines were examined with single effects and combinations of immunity affecting (1) AOM rates given colonization (pathogenicity), (2) susceptibility to colonization, and (3) contagiousness given colonization. Percent reductions in AOM across all preschool children were (1) 34%, (2) 31%, (3) 9%, (1 and 2) 57%, (2 and 3) 50%, and (1, 2, and 3) 75%. Effects on children in daycare vs. not in daycare were (1) 18 vs. 48%, (2) -1 vs. 57%, (3) 13 vs. 5%, (1 and 2) 30 vs. 79%, (2 and 3) 33 vs. 60%, and (1, 2, and 3) 64 vs. 85%. Pure pathogenicity effects (1 alone) will need to be supplemented by transmission effects. The effects of susceptibility (2 alone) are diminished or negative because children protected against colonization have lower levels of immunity to (1) and (3) than unvaccinated children. For trials to predict population effects, both colonization and AOM outcomes must be studied and all three effects must be evaluated. This need arises because, unlike H. influenzae type B, high NTHi exposure diminishes cumulative vaccine effects and high colonization rates generate rapid accumulation of natural immunity that alters the indirect effects of vaccine immunity on transmission differently by age and daycare status.