Evaluation of mortality trajectories in evolutionary biodemography.

An important task in evolutionary biodemography is to determine the schedule of survival and reproduction as the outcome of natural selection acting on life histories. We do this by using a model in which the state of the organism is characterized by mass and accumulated damage, both of which are affected by activity and which affect the rate of mortality. Focusing on growth during the juvenile period, we determine the level of activity that maximizes reproductive value. Given this, we are able to project forward and determine the trajectory of mortality for an individual following the optimal life history, given the physiological and reproductive parameters. We show that there are two main classes of juvenile mortality trajectories: U-shaped (such as recently reported for prereproductive humans) and steadily declining and we are able to connect the shape of the mortality trajectory with the physiological and reproductive parameters characterizing the life history. Our work shows the importance of state in models of evolutionary biodemography and the power of modern computational methods to illuminate biological process.