Long-term trends and short-term variability of water quality in Skive Fjord, Denmark - nutrient load and mussels are the primary pressures and drivers that influence water quality.

Nineteen years of monitoring data from the eutrophic Skive Fjord, Denmark were examined for linkages to external pressures and drivers, including nutrient inputs, meteorology and stocks of blue mussels. Linkages were examined by: 1) time-series analysis to document effects of nutrient reduction programs, 2) Pearson Rank correlations, 3) multivariate statistical analysis (PLS) to identify water quality variables with high predictability and their linkages to pressures, and 4) regression analysis to quantify relationships between pressures and water quality. Freshwater input, nitrogen load and phosphorus load showed decreasing trends through the period 1984-2002. The load reductions were only partially translated into trends in water quality: phosphorus decreased in most seasons, while total nitrogen decreased during winter and spring only. Phosphorus concentration had the highest predictability (explained by seasonal temperature variation) followed by transparency, silicate, tot-N, chlorophyll-a, primary productivity, phytoplankton diversity and phytoplankton turnover. The variation in pressures other than nutrient input confounded the relations between loads and water quality. High biomass of mussels led to reduced chlorophyll-a and increased transparency, while short-term variability in water column mixing led to changes in chlorophyll-a due to nutrient entrainment and coupling to benthic mussels.