OBJECTIVE: To develop an easily applicable prediction rule for asthma in young adulthood using childhood characteristics. METHODS: A total of 1,055 out of 1,328 members of a Dutch birth cohort were followed from 2 to 21 years of age. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the predictive value of childhood characteristics on asthma at 21 years of age. A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models. RESULTS: Of the 693 responding subjects, 86 (12%) were diagnosed with asthma. Independent prognostic factors at ages 2 and 4 years were female gender (odds ratios (OR) 1.9 and 2.1; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.2-3.2 and 1.3-2.5), smoking mother (OR 1.6 and 1.6; CI 1.0-2.7 and 1.0-2.6), lower respiratory tract illness (OR 1.9 and 2.4; CI 1.0-3.6 and 1.4-4.0), and atopic parents (OR 2.1 and 1.9; CI 1.3-3.4 and 1.2-3.1). The predictive power of both models was poor; area under ROC curve was 0.66 and 0.68, respectively. CONCLUSION: Asthma in young adulthood could not be predicted satisfactorily based on childhood characteristics. Nevertheless, we propose that this method is further tested as a tool to predict development of asthma.
OBJECTIVE: To develop an easily applicable prediction rule for asthma in young adulthood using childhood characteristics. METHODS: A total of 1,055 out of 1,328 members of a Dutch birth cohort were followed from 2 to 21 years of age. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the predictive value of childhood characteristics on asthma at 21 years of age. A prognostic function was developed, and the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the predictive ability of the prognostic models. RESULTS: Of the 693 responding subjects, 86 (12%) were diagnosed with asthma. Independent prognostic factors at ages 2 and 4 years were female gender (odds ratios (OR) 1.9 and 2.1; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.2-3.2 and 1.3-2.5), smoking mother (OR 1.6 and 1.6; CI 1.0-2.7 and 1.0-2.6), lower respiratory tract illness (OR 1.9 and 2.4; CI 1.0-3.6 and 1.4-4.0), and atopic parents (OR 2.1 and 1.9; CI 1.3-3.4 and 1.2-3.1). The predictive power of both models was poor; area under ROC curve was 0.66 and 0.68, respectively. CONCLUSION:Asthma in young adulthood could not be predicted satisfactorily based on childhood characteristics. Nevertheless, we propose that this method is further tested as a tool to predict development of asthma.
Authors: Karina E van Wonderen; Lonneke B van der Mark; Jacob Mohrs; Ronald B Geskus; Willem M van der Wal; Wim M C van Aalderen; Patrick J E Bindels; Gerben ter Riet Journal: BMC Pulm Med Date: 2009-04-15 Impact factor: 3.317
Authors: Esther Hafkamp-de Groen; Hester F Lingsma; Daan Caudri; Alet Wijga; Vincent Wv Jaddoe; Ewout W Steyerberg; Johan C de Jongste; Hein Raat Journal: BMC Pulm Med Date: 2012-10-16 Impact factor: 3.317
Authors: Gang Luo; Flory L Nkoy; Bryan L Stone; Darell Schmick; Michael D Johnson Journal: BMC Med Inform Decis Mak Date: 2015-11-28 Impact factor: 2.796