Risk characterization and exposure assessment in arseniasis-endemic areas of Taiwan.

This paper examines the age-specific human health risks exposed to inorganic arsenic through arsenic-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater consumptions in arseniasis-endemic areas of blackfoot disease (BFD)-endemic area and Lanyang Plain in Taiwan, based on an probabilistic integrated risk assessment framework. We employ an age-dependent predictive physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model to account for arsenic concentrations in target organs. We reconstruct age-specific dose-response profiles for arsenicosis and arsenic-induced cancers by best fitting a pharmacodynamics-based three-parameter Hill equation model to published epidemiological data from West Bengal and Taiwan. The predicted median arsenic concentrations in age group-specific skin, lung, and bladder ranged from 2.24-5.70, 3.76-9.46, and 5.11-20.71 micro g g(-1) in BFD-endemic area, whereas 4.98-12.04, 8.23-19.92, and 11.07-43.45 micro g g(-1) in Lanyang Plain, respectively. Risk analysis indicates that consumption of arsenic-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater in arseniasis-endemic areas may increase threat to prevalence of arsenicosis for all age groups, whereas adults may undergo potential risks of arsenic-induced skin, lung and bladder cancers. We show that peoples in Lanyang Plain are more readily associated with higher morbidities for arsenicosis and skin cancer as well as fatalities for lung and bladder cancers than that of peoples in BFD-endemic area. Here we report the first case in which theoretical human health risks for consuming As-contaminated farmed fish/shrimp and groundwater in the arseniasis-endemic areas are alarming under a conservative condition based on a probabilistic risk assessment framework.