ST-segment abnormalities and premature complexes are predictors of new-onset atrial fibrillation: the Niigata preventive medicine study.

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrophy is a known risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it is not well understood whether other electrocardiogram abnormalities are associated with development of AF.
METHODS: This was a community-based cohort study based upon a database of annual health examinations. We included 63,386 subjects aged > or = 50 years, without baseline AF (including atrial flutter), structural heart disease, or heart failure, who completed the annual examination during a 10-year follow-up period (1991-2002). The electrocardiographic risk factors for AF were studied in the subjects.
RESULTS: Atrial fibrillation developed in 873 subjects. Age, male sex, body mass index, hypertension, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and diabetes were significant risk factors for the development of AF. In multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for these risk factors, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio [OR], 1.43), ST-segment abnormality without left ventricular hypertrophy (OR, 1.89), and the presence of premature complexes during a 10-second recording (OR, 2.89) were significantly associated with AF, whereas either right (OR, 0.84) or left bundle branch block (OR, 0.96) was unrelated. The risk for AF increased progressively with the severity of both ST-segment change and premature complexes.
CONCLUSIONS: ST-segment abnormality and comparably high-frequency premature complexes were each associated with increased risk for the development of AF. These electrocardiographic findings may be useful to stratify high-risk subjects for new-onset AF.