Air quality modeling in the South Coast Air Basin of California: what do the numbers really mean?

This study evaluates air quality model sensitivity to input and to model components. Simulations are performed using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) airshed model. Results show the impacts on ozone (O3) concentration in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) of California because of changes in: (1) input data, including meteorological conditions (temperature, UV radiation, mixing height, and wind speed), boundary conditions, and initial conditions (ICs); and (2) model components, including advection solver and chemical mechanism. O3 concentrations are strongly affected by meteorological conditions and, in particular, by temperature. ICs also affect O3 concentrations, especially in the first 2 days of simulation. On the other hand, boundary conditions do not significantly affect the absolute peak O3 concentration, although they do affect concentrations near the inflow boundaries. Moreover, predicted O3 concentrations are impacted considerably by the chemical mechanism. In addition, dispersion of pollutants is affected by the advection routine used to calculate its transport. Comparison among CIT, California Photochemical Grid Model (CALGRID), and Urban Airshed Model air quality models suggests that differences in O3 predictions are mainly caused by the different chemical mechanisms used. Additionally, advection solvers contribute to the differences observed among model predictions. Uncertainty in predicted peak O3 concentration suggests that air quality evaluation should not be based solely on this single value but also on trends predicted by air quality models using a number of chemical mechanisms and with an advection solver that is mass conservative.