BACKGROUND: Chagas' disease is an important health problem in Latin America, and cardiac involvement is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. We developed a model to predict the risk of death in patients with Chagas' heart disease. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 424 outpatients from a regional Brazilian cohort. The association of potential risk factors with death was tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis, and a risk score was created. The model was validated in 153 patients from a separate community hospital. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 7.9 years, 130 patients in the development cohort died. Six independent prognostic factors were identified, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient: New York Heart Association class III or IV (5 points), evidence of cardiomegaly on radiography (5 points), left ventricular systolic dysfunction on echocardiography (3 points), nonsustained ventricular tachycardia on 24-hour Holter monitoring (3 points), low QRS voltage on electrocardiography (2 points), and male sex (2 points). We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined three risk groups: low risk (0 to 6 points), intermediate risk (7 to 11 points), and high risk (12 to 20 points). In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality rates for these three groups were 10 percent, 44 percent, and 84 percent, respectively. In the validation cohort, the corresponding mortality rates were 9 percent, 37 percent, and 85 percent. The C statistic for the point system was 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.81 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk score was developed to predict death in Chagas' heart disease and was validated in an independent cohort. Copyright 2006 Massachusetts Medical Society.
BACKGROUND: Chagas' disease is an important health problem in Latin America, and cardiac involvement is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. We developed a model to predict the risk of death in patients with Chagas' heart disease. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 424 outpatients from a regional Brazilian cohort. The association of potential risk factors with death was tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis, and a risk score was created. The model was validated in 153 patients from a separate community hospital. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 7.9 years, 130 patients in the development cohort died. Six independent prognostic factors were identified, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient: New York Heart Association class III or IV (5 points), evidence of cardiomegaly on radiography (5 points), left ventricular systolic dysfunction on echocardiography (3 points), nonsustained ventricular tachycardia on 24-hour Holter monitoring (3 points), low QRS voltage on electrocardiography (2 points), and male sex (2 points). We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined three risk groups: low risk (0 to 6 points), intermediate risk (7 to 11 points), and high risk (12 to 20 points). In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality rates for these three groups were 10 percent, 44 percent, and 84 percent, respectively. In the validation cohort, the corresponding mortality rates were 9 percent, 37 percent, and 85 percent. The C statistic for the point system was 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.81 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk score was developed to predict death in Chagas' heart disease and was validated in an independent cohort. Copyright 2006 Massachusetts Medical Society.
Authors: Carlos Alberto Pastore; Nelson Samesima; Horácio Gomes Pereira Filho; Leonardo Paschoal Camacho Varoni; Carlos Eduardo Rochitte; Marcelo Luiz Vieira; Luiz Francisco Rodrigues de Ávila; Rodrigo de Jesus Louzeiro Melo; Alexandre da Costa Pereira; Julia Daheer; Carlos Henrique del Carlo Journal: Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol Date: 2014-11-04 Impact factor: 1.468
Authors: Paul Roddy; Javier Goiri; Laurence Flevaud; Pedro Pablo Palma; Silvia Morote; Nines Lima; Luis Villa; Faustino Torrico; Pedro Albajar-Viñas Journal: J Clin Microbiol Date: 2008-04-09 Impact factor: 5.948
Authors: Rafael Ob de Morais; Ândrea V Chaves-Markman; Anna Pp Miranda; Ingrid G Amorim; Maria da Ga de M Cavalcanti; Manuel Markman; Brivaldo Markman-Filho Journal: Am J Cardiovasc Dis Date: 2018-04-05