Simple data-driven models of intracellular calcium dynamics with predictive power.

Biology is complex. However, it is not clear how much of this complexity must necessarily translate into complicated mathematical models of biological processes. Simple models can be appealing to physicists but are usually deceiving for biologists. Complicated models, on the other hand, depend on too many parameters whose values are frequently unknown. Therefore, complicated models, although in principle more realistic, can lead to erroneous results if they are sensitive to these unknown parameter values. Intracellular calcium signals provide an example of utmost biological importance in which the issue of "simple vs complex" can be explored. In this paper we show that simple models describing the dynamics of intracellular calcium can be directly inferred from experimental data, without no a priori information on unknown parameters. A similar approach can be followed to study other reaction-diffusion systems. In spite of their simplicity, these models can provide quantitative information on some of the processes that shape calcium signals, such as the calcium current that underlies an experimental observation. This shows that simple models of biological systems are not limited to qualitative descriptions.