Probabilistic study of well capture zones distribution at the Lauswiesen field site.

The delineation of well capture zones is of utmost environmental and engineering relevance as pumping wells are commonly used both for drinking water supply needs, where protection zones have to be defined, and for investigation and remediation of contaminated aquifers. We analyze the probabilistic nature of well capture zones within the well field located at the "Lauswiesen" experimental site. The test site is part of an alluvial heterogeneous aquifer located in the Neckar river valley, close to the city of Tübingen in South-West Germany. We explore the effect of different conceptual models of the structure of aquifer heterogeneities on the delineation of three-dimensional probabilistic well catchment and time-related capture zones, in the presence of migration of conservative solutes. The aquifer is modeled as a three-dimensional, doubly stochastic composite medium, where distributions of geo-materials and hydraulic properties are uncertain. We study the relative importance of uncertain facies geometry and uncertain hydraulic conductivity and porosity on predictions of catchment and solute time of travel to the pumping well by focusing on cases in which (1) the facies distribution is random, but the hydraulic properties of each material are fixed, and (2) both facies geometry and material properties vary stochastically. The problem is tackled within a conditional numerical Monte Carlo framework. Results are provided in terms of probabilistic demarcations of the three-dimensional well catchment and time-related capture zones. Our findings suggest that the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the location of the outer boundary of well catchment at the "Lauswiesen" site is significantly affected by the conceptual model adopted to incorporate the heterogeneous nature of the aquifer domain in a predictive framework. Taking into account randomness of both lithofacies distribution and materials hydraulic conductivity allows recognizing the existence of preferential flow paths that influence the extent of the well catchment and the solute travel time distribution at the site.