A nonlinear latent class model for joint analysis of multivariate longitudinal data and a binary outcome.

We consider a joint model for exploring association between several correlated longitudinal markers and a clinical event. A nonlinear growth mixture model exhibits the different latent classes of evolution of the latent quantity underlying the correlated longitudinal markers and a logistic regression models the probability of occurence of the clinical event according to the latent classes. By introducing a flexible nonlinear transformation including parameters to be estimated between each marker and the latent process, the model also deals with non-Gaussian continuous markers. Through an application on cognitive ageing, the two advantages of the model are underlined: (1) the latent profiles of evolution associated with the clinical event are described including covariate effects in the longitudinal model but also in the probability of class membership and in the probability of occurence of the event, and (2) a diagnostic and a prognostic tools are derived from the model for early detection of the clinical event using any available information about the longitudinal markers. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.