The natural history of HIV-1 infection: staging classifications of disease.

We evaluated and compared four staging classification systems for HIV infection in a population-based cohort: (1) a staging based on prodromal clinical criteria; (2) the Walter Reed Staging Classification (WRSC); (3) the immunologic staging system (ISS), and (4) a simple staging based on oral disease and CD4+ T-cell depletion. The staging systems were applied to 386 HIV-infected men in the San Francisco Men's Health Study cohort who did not have AIDS at the baseline examination. After 48-56 months of follow-up the cumulative incidence of AIDS and the cumulative mortality by stage was determined for each staging. Unlike the other systems, the WRSC could not classify a substantial proportion of HIV-infected men (51.9%). The WRSC and ISS include one or more stages which did not appear to be associated with a prognosis substantially different from that of adjacent stages. The simplified staging system based on CD4+ T-cell depletion and oral disease may be the most effective of the systems studied. A more complete understanding of the pathophysiology during the evolution of HIV infection will be required to define a more detailed staging of this disease.