Temporal and spatial variation of nutrient levels in the Nemunas River (Lithuania and Belarus).

There are discordant results on trends in nutrient river water quality from the economical transition countries in Europe. The present study assessed the impact of these economical changes on the load and concentration at 17 monitoring stations along the Nemunas River and its major tributaries (Lithuania and Belarus). Three time periods were evaluated: the Soviet rule command system period 1986-1991, the transfer to market economy period 1992-1996 and the post reform period 1997-2002. The most surprising result in this study, was the increased area-specific load of NO(3)-N from the first to the third period at almost all the sampling sites. The increase was particularly large (43-78%) at the sites in the Lithuanian part of the river. The corresponding load increase in the Belarussian part of the river was only 1-15%. The statistical analyses of concentration data confirm the strong upward NO(3)-N trend at the Nemunas mouth and at 5 of the 6 tributaries in the lower part of Nemunas. Temporal and spatial analysis of nitrates transport in the Nemunas River and its main tributaries revealed that nitrates mainly originate from agricultural areas. The upward trends were most likely an effect of ploughing of pastures and unbalanced crop fertilisation in combination with large storage and accumulation of soil-nitrogen during the Soviet period. On contrary to nitrate-N, the area-specific load of PO(4)-P decreased significantly from the first to the third period at all sites along the Nemunas River (31-86%). Seasonal (SMK) and Partial (PMK) Mann-Kendall tests on PO(4)-P concentrations also showed significant downward trend at 14 of 16 investigated sites. The decrease of PO(4)-P levels was attributed to the reduction of municipal and industrial point source emissions and to the decreased livestock numbers. The NH(4)-N load showed the same pattern as PO(4)-P. At the river mouth the load was 90 kg km(-2) yr(-1) during the first period compared to only 20-30 kg km(-2) yr(-1) in the third period. The trend test on NH(4)-N concentrations detected significant downward trends at 5 out of 16 sites. The declines were explained by decreased emissions from cities and large animal breeding farms. This study showed that trend analysis at multiple sites in a river basin is crucial for the understanding of the variability in time and space. Such analysis is also important for our interpretation of underlying sources and fluxes in a drainage basin over time. This is particularly important for compounds that have different source origin.