What drives conversion of tropical forest in Carrasco Province, Bolivia?

The conversion of closed forest (CCF) in Carrasco Province, Bolivia, was monitored using a series of four midresolution satellite images from 1986 to 2002. The conversion of forests into nonforests from 1986 to 2002 was 1.5% annually. Inclusion of conversions into open forest doubles the annual CCF rate to 3.1%. Five predictors of CCF were tested in a spatial model: land tenure regime, distance from roads, distance from settlements, topography, and soil suitability for farming. Only three out of the five predictors tested were found to be reliable predictors of CCF: land tenure regime, distance from roads, and distance from settlements. University reserve and indigenous land show substantially less CCF than national park and untitled land. In addition the spatial model shows that the greater the distance of forest from roads or settlements, the less CCF. Topography and soil suitability for farming lack predictive power for CCF and are therefore excluded from the spatial model.