Risk factors for developing leprosy--a population-based cohort study in Indonesia.

We identified risk factors associated with increased yearly incidence rates of leprosy in five island populations. Age, sex, household size and Mycobacterium leprae-specific antibodies as well as contact factors were studied. Of 94 index patients (patients diagnosed in 2000), 43 (46%) were classified as multibacillary (MB), 17 (19%) were seropositive for PGL-1 [corrected] antibodies and 6 (7%) had M. leprae DNA in nasal swabs as determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. All PCR positive patients were also seropositive. Forty-four of 4903 initially symptom free persons developed leprosy within 4 years, giving an incidence rate of 298 per 1000 person-years. Men had a 22 times higher risk [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-4.1] of developing leprosy than women. People living in households with more than 7 members had a 3.1 times higher risk (95% CI: 1.3-7.3) than households of 1-4 members. Persons who were seropositive in 2000 had a 3.8 times higher risk (95% CI: 1.1-12.6) than seronegative persons. Household contacts of MB patients had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 4.6 (95% CI: 1.6-12.9) and household contacts of PCR positive patients an aHR of 9.36 (95% CI: 2.5-34.9) compared with non-contacts. Patients with PCR positive nasal swabs, suggesting nasal excretion of M. leprae, are probably the patients with the highest transmission potential. Since all index patients who were PCR positive were also seropositive, serology seems an adequate tool to identify these patients. Preventing seropositive persons from becoming seropositive and infectious patients might break the chain of transmission.