Early posttransplant serum osteoprotegerin levels predict long-term (8-year) patient survival and cardiovascular death in renal transplant patients.

The primary objectives of this analysis were to examine the effects of early posttransplantation (10 wk) serum levels of osteoprotegerin (OPG), mannose-binding lectin (MBL), and MBL-associated serine proteases (MASP; MASP-2 and MASP-3) on long-term (8-yr) patient survival, graft survival, and cardiovascular (CV) death. During a period of 16 mo (1995 to 1996), a total of 173 consecutive renal transplant recipients without diabetes before transplantation were included in a prospective study that was designed to address the impact of metabolic CV risk factors on survival and CV end points. Baseline sera from 172 patients were available for analysis. Follow-up data until January 1, 2004, were obtained from a national renal registry. Patients with high (fourth quartile) serum levels of OPG had significantly higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.3 to 11.8; P<0.001) and CV death (HR 10.8; 95% CI 3.8 to 30.4; P<0.001) than patients with lower OPG concentrations. After multiple Cox regression analysis, high serum levels of OPG remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 6.0; 95% CI 3.1 to 11.6, P<0.001) and CV death (HR 8.2; 95% CI 2.5 to 26.4; P<0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that age, creatinine clearance, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein all were independently associated with OPG (R2=0.42). No significant association between OPG and death-censored graft loss was revealed. Serum levels of MBL, MASP-2, and MASP-3 were not significantly associated with patient survival, CV death, or graft loss. Early measured posttransplantation serum OPG is a highly significant independent predictor of death from any cause or CV death in white renal transplant recipients.