Predictors of hepatitis C virus RNA levels in a prospective cohort study of drug users.

High levels of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA are associated with a poor response to treatment of chronic hepatitis C, and a substantial reduction in HCV RNA levels predicts a favorable treatment response. We prospectively studied time-dependent and time-independent predictors of HCV RNA levels in 264 drug users with chronic HCV infection. Interviews on medical history and high-risk behaviors, phlebotomy for HIV viral load, serum HCV RNA levels as measured by the COBAS Amplicor HCV Monitor (Roche Diagnostics, Branchburg, NJ), and a lymphocyte subset assay were performed. Factors associated with HCV RNA levels over time were analyzed using a linear mixed model. Nearly 70% of the participants were men, two thirds were Hispanic, and the mean age was 46 years. HCV RNA levels increased over time. Older age (P < 0.001), HIV seropositivity (P = 0.03), and HCV nongenotype 1 (P = 0.05) were predictors of higher HCV RNA levels on multivariate analysis. Among 142 HIV-seropositive participants, a detectable HIV-1 viral load (P < 0.001) and recent alcohol use (P = 0.02) were predictors of higher HCV RNA levels. The predictors of higher HCV RNA levels found in this longitudinal study are consistent with those of prior cross-sectional studies. Further studies are warranted to determine if treatment of alcohol use affects HCV RNA levels.