Ilkka Henrik Mäkinen1, Andrew Stickley. 1. Stockholm Centre on Health of Societies in Transition (SCOHOST), School of Sociology and Contemporary History, Södertörn University College, 141 89, Huddinge, Sweden. ilkka.makinen@sh.se
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The relationship between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality has been little researched. On the basis of the hypothesis that agricultural rationalization leads to more suicide, this study investigated whether a general relationship could be found between structural change in agriculture and suicide mortality in post-war Europe. METHOD: Due to the expected small size of the effect, the data were deliberately collected so as to maximize the variation in the independent variable. Annual national-level data on suicide mortality, the percentage of the work force in agricultural employment, and the unemployment level were collected from those countries and 10-year periods where the structural changes (reductions in employment) in agriculture between 1950 and 1995 had been most and least pronounced. In order to avoid confounders, the annual changes in the variables' values were correlated with each other, adding a control for the level of unemployment, and allowing for lagged effects. RESULTS: The annual changes in the levels of agricultural employment and those of suicide mortality did not covary at all. Controlling for unemployment levels did not change this, nor could any lagged effects be found. CONCLUSIONS: At the most general level, no causal relation between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality was detected. This lack of a universal relation does not, however, preclude the possibility of the relationship existing given certain socio-historical circumstances.
BACKGROUND: The relationship between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality has been little researched. On the basis of the hypothesis that agricultural rationalization leads to more suicide, this study investigated whether a general relationship could be found between structural change in agriculture and suicide mortality in post-war Europe. METHOD: Due to the expected small size of the effect, the data were deliberately collected so as to maximize the variation in the independent variable. Annual national-level data on suicide mortality, the percentage of the work force in agricultural employment, and the unemployment level were collected from those countries and 10-year periods where the structural changes (reductions in employment) in agriculture between 1950 and 1995 had been most and least pronounced. In order to avoid confounders, the annual changes in the variables' values were correlated with each other, adding a control for the level of unemployment, and allowing for lagged effects. RESULTS: The annual changes in the levels of agricultural employment and those of suicide mortality did not covary at all. Controlling for unemployment levels did not change this, nor could any lagged effects be found. CONCLUSIONS: At the most general level, no causal relation between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality was detected. This lack of a universal relation does not, however, preclude the possibility of the relationship existing given certain socio-historical circumstances.