| Literature DB >> 16478546 |
Lalit Dandona1, Rakhi Dandona, G Anil Kumar, Juan Pablo Gutierrez, Sam McPherson, Stefano M Bertozzi.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: HIV prevention in India has mostly focussed on heterosexual transmission. Data on homosexual transmission are not readily available from India. We therefore assessed the probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV for men who sell sex to men and compared this with women who sell sex in India.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2006 PMID: 16478546 PMCID: PMC1421390 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-6-31
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Public Health ISSN: 1471-2458 Impact factor: 3.295
Age distribution of men who sell sex to men and men who have sex with men but do not sell sex
| 16–19 | 342 (7.0) | 128 (7.2) | 74 (6.7) | 54 (8.0) |
| 20–24 | 1309 (26.8) | 536 (30.2) | 329 (30.0) | 207 (30.5) |
| 25–29 | 1476 (30.2) | 496 (27.9) | 314 (28.6) | 182 (26.8) |
| 30–34 | 817 (16.7) | 274 (15.4) | 176 (16.0) | 98 (14.5) |
| 35–39 | 519 (10.6) | 173 (9.7) | 109 (9.9) | 64 (9.4) |
| 40–44 | 255 (5.2) | 96 (5.4) | 52 (4.7) | 44 (6.5) |
| 45 or more | 167 (3.4) | 73 (4.1) | 44 (4.0) | 29 (4.3) |
| Total | 4885 (100) | 1776 (100) | 1098 (100) | 678 (100) |
*Percent of the total for each column.
Proportion of men who sell sex among the sample of men who have sex with men in various rural-urban categories
| Rural | 18 | 965 | 306 (31.7) | 208 (21.6) | 98 (10.2) |
| Urban (50,000 or less) | 9 | 502 | 137 (27.3) | 91 (18.1) | 46 (9.2) |
| Urban (50,001–100,000) | 15 | 1511 | 326 (21.6) | 157 (10.4) | 169 (11.2) |
| Urban (100,001–200,000) | 10 | 1651 | 405 (24.5) | 266 (16.1) | 139 (8.4) |
| Urban (200,001–300,000) | 6 | 1180 | 249 (21.1) | 139 (11.8) | 110 (9.3) |
| Urban (>300,000) | 4 | 852 | 353 (41.4) | 237 (27.8) | 116 (13.6) |
| Total | 62 | 6661 | 1776 (26.6) | 1098 (16.5) | 678 (10.2) |
*Rural-urban definition and the populations taken from the Census of India [11].
†Percent of the total number in each rural-urban category.
Annual probability of acquiring and transmitting HIV for men having sex with men who sell sex and who do not sell sex and for women who sell sex
| Variable* | |||||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 3.09 | 1.59 | 3.09 | 29.69 | 29.69 | 29.69 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 3.31 |
| M | 55.81 | 19.86 | 4.97 | 1.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 54.30 | 3.46 | 1.42 |
| I | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 143.86 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 9.34 | 2.09 | 0.17 | 22.00 | 20.94 | 0.35 |
| Total | 146 | 12 | 43 | ||||||
| Variable* | |||||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.57 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.122 | 0.40 | 0.222 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 2.85 | 1.56 | 2.85 | 29.14 | 29.14 | 29.14 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 3.31 |
| M | 76.89 | 27.02 | 4.34 | 0.74 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 75.50 | 2.95 | 1.21 |
| I | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 168.87 | 1.08 | 0.89 | 6.88 | 1.35 | 0.07 | 27.98 | 16.42 | 0.31 |
| Total | 171 | 8 | 45 | ||||||
| Variable* | |||||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 4.00 | 1.94 | 4.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.31 |
| M | 23.07 | 8.92 | 5.22 | 1.48 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 21.57 | 3.72 | 1.52 |
| I | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 87.68 | 0.53 | 1.75 | 12.61 | 3.28 | 0.30 | 11.13 | 28.24 | 0.35 |
| Total | 90 | 16 | 40 | ||||||
| Variable* | |||||||||
| Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive anal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | |
| P | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| R | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.015 | 0.0004 |
| F | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.35 |
| E | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| N | 3.89 | 3.31 | 3.89 | 34.09 | 34.09 | 34.09 | 2.85 | 3.09 | 1.59 |
| M | 10.64 | 4.35 | 13.13 | 2.26 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 2.95 | 2.27 | 0.81 |
| I | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Annual probability per 1000 | 53.87 | 1.24 | 5.18 | 11.31 | 2.08 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 5.97 | 0.03 |
| Total | 60 | 13 | 6 | ||||||
| Variable* | |||||||||
| Receptive vaginal sex | Receptive anal sex | Receptive oral sex | Insertive vaginal sex | Insertive anal sex | |||||
| P | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||||
| R | 0.0015 | 0.015 | 0.0004 | 0.0007 | 0.001 | ||||
| F | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||||
| E | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.70 | ||||
| N | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 2.51 | ||||
| M | 171.78 | 0.17 | 0.43 | 171.78 | 0.17 | ||||
| I | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ||||
| Annual probability per 1000 | 21.27 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 21.77 | 0.04 | ||||
| Total | 22 | 22 | |||||||
*P is average HIV prevalence among sex partners of the group for which the probability is being estimated; R is risk of HIV transmission per act of unprotected sex; F is fraction of sex acts in which condom was used; E is effectiveness of condoms; N is average number of sex acts per partner in a year; M is average number of sex partners in a year; I is proportion of the susceptible group that is already infected with HIV.
Sensitivity analysis for relative probabilities between men who sell sex to men and women who sell sex for acquiring and transmitting HIV
| Men who sell sex to men | Women who sell sex | Ratio between men who sell sex to men and women who sell sex† | ||||
| 95% confidence interval* | Range* | 95% confidence interval* | Range* | 95% confidence interval* | Range* | |
| 116 – 179 | 94 – 211 | 17 – 27 | 14 – 32 | 4.9 – 9.2 | 3.7 – 12.8 | |
| 42 – 71 | 33 – 86 | 18 – 26 | 15 – 30 | 2.0 – 3.2 | 1.5 – 4.3 | |
| For transmitting HIV through sex with women | 8 – 16 | 6 – 20 | ||||
| For transmitting HIV through sex with men who do not sell sex | 34 – 55 | 27 – 66 | ||||
| For transmitting HIV through sex with men | 18 – 26 | 15 – 30 | ||||
*Calculated with @Risk software from 100,000 iterations using random values between the plausible range of values for the variables in the formula. The range of values considered plausible is explained in the methods section.
†For acquiring HIV, this ratio was most sensitive to P for receptive vaginal sex (-0.50), R for receptive vaginal sex (-0.50), P for receptive anal sex (0.45) and R for receptive anal sex (0.44); for transmitting HIV, the results were most sensitive to P for insertive vaginal sex (-0.64), R for insertive vaginal sex (-0.45), and then to P and R for insertive anal sex (0.25 for both) and P and R for receptive anal sex (0.24 for both). The sensitivity of this ratio to the plausible range of values used for each variable can range from 0 (no sensitivity) to -1 (complete negative sensitivity) or 1 (complete positive sensitivity). Letters denoting the variables are explained in the methods section and the footnote for Table 3.