Quantifying influenza vaccine efficacy and antigenic distance.

We introduce a new measure of antigenic distance between influenza A vaccine and circulating strains. The measure correlates well with efficacies of the H3N2 influenza A component of the annual vaccine between 1971 and 2004, as do results of a theory of the immune response to influenza following vaccination. This new measure of antigenic distance is correlated with vaccine efficacy to a greater degree than are current state of the art phylogenetic sequence analyses or ferret antisera inhibition assays. We suggest that this new measure of antigenic distance be used in the design of the annual influenza vaccine and in the interpretation of vaccine efficacy monitoring.