Simulation analyses to evaluate alternative control strategies for the 2002 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the Republic of Korea.

Using the stochastic and spatial simulation model of between-farm spread of disease, InterSpread Plus, we evaluated the effect of alternative strategies for controlling the 2002 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Republic of Korea. InterSpread Plus was parameterised to simulate epidemics of FMD in the population of farms containing susceptible animal species in the Korean counties of Yongin, Icheon, Pyongtaek, Anseong, Eumseong, Asan, Cheonan, and Jincheon. The starting point of our analyses was the simulation of a reference strategy, which approximated the real epidemic. The results of simulations of alternative epidemic-control strategies were compared with this reference strategy. Ring vaccination (when used with either limited or extended pre-emptive depopulation) reduced both the size and variability of the predicted number of infected farms. Reducing the time between disease incursion and commencement of controls had the greatest effect on reducing the predicted number of infected farms.