AIMS: To compare 19 risk score algorithms with regard to their validity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality after cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Risk factors for patients undergoing heart surgery between 1996 and 2001 at a single centre were prospectively collected. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to describe the performance and accuracy. Survival at 1 year and cause of death were obtained in all cases. The study included 6222 cardiac surgical procedures. Actual mortality was 2.9% at 30 days and 6.1% at 1 year. Discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality in cardiac surgery was highest for logistic (0.84 and 0.77) and additive (0.84 and 0.77) European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) algorithms, followed by Cleveland Clinic (0.82 and 0.76) and Magovern (0.82 and 0.76) scoring systems. None of the other 15 risk algorithms had a significantly better discriminatory power than these four. In coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)-only surgery, EuroSCORE followed by New York State (NYS) and Cleveland Clinic risk score showed the highest discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE, Cleveland Clinic, and Magovern risk algorithms showed superior performance and accuracy in open-heart surgery, and EuroSCORE, NYS, and Cleveland Clinic in CABG-only surgery. Although the models were originally designed to predict early mortality, the 1-year mortality prediction was also reasonably accurate.
AIMS: To compare 19 risk score algorithms with regard to their validity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality after cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Risk factors for patients undergoing heart surgery between 1996 and 2001 at a single centre were prospectively collected. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to describe the performance and accuracy. Survival at 1 year and cause of death were obtained in all cases. The study included 6222 cardiac surgical procedures. Actual mortality was 2.9% at 30 days and 6.1% at 1 year. Discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality in cardiac surgery was highest for logistic (0.84 and 0.77) and additive (0.84 and 0.77) European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) algorithms, followed by Cleveland Clinic (0.82 and 0.76) and Magovern (0.82 and 0.76) scoring systems. None of the other 15 risk algorithms had a significantly better discriminatory power than these four. In coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)-only surgery, EuroSCORE followed by New York State (NYS) and Cleveland Clinic risk score showed the highest discriminatory power for 30-day and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: EuroSCORE, Cleveland Clinic, and Magovern risk algorithms showed superior performance and accuracy in open-heart surgery, and EuroSCORE, NYS, and Cleveland Clinic in CABG-only surgery. Although the models were originally designed to predict early mortality, the 1-year mortality prediction was also reasonably accurate.
Authors: Luise Gaede; Johannes Blumenstein; Christoph Liebetrau; Oliver Dörr; Won-Keun Kim; Holger Nef; Oliver Husser; Jan Gülker; Albrecht Elsässer; Christian W Hamm; Stephan Achenbach; Helge Möllmann Journal: Clin Res Cardiol Date: 2019-06-24 Impact factor: 5.460
Authors: Nadia Bouabdallaoui; Susanna R Stevens; Torsten Doenst; Mark C Petrie; Nawwar Al-Attar; Imtiaz S Ali; Andrew P Ambrosy; Anna K Barton; Raymond Cartier; Alexander Cherniavsky; Pierre Demondion; Patrice Desvigne-Nickens; Robert R Favaloro; Sinisa Gradinac; Petra Heinisch; Anil Jain; Marek Jasinski; Jerome Jouan; Renato A K Kalil; Lorenzo Menicanti; Robert E Michler; Vivek Rao; Peter K Smith; Marian Zembala; Eric J Velazquez; Hussein R Al-Khalidi; Jean L Rouleau Journal: Circ Heart Fail Date: 2018-11 Impact factor: 8.790
Authors: Jose Ramon Perez-Valdivieso; Pablo Monedero; Marc Vives; Nuria Garcia-Fernandez; Maira Bes-Rastrollo Journal: BMC Nephrol Date: 2009-09-22 Impact factor: 2.388