Caring for survivors of childhood cancers: the size of the problem.

Many survivors of childhood cancer have significant health problems due to their illness or treatment. This population-based study examines the number of long-term survivors, their disabilities and consequent long-term care needs. Survival rates for children diagnosed with cancer between 1960 and 1999 in the West Midlands, United Kingdom (UK), were used to estimate future long-term survivor numbers. Treatment and late effects data on a cohort of patients surviving for more than 5 years were used to consider continuing care needs. Between the 1960s and 1990s, 5-year survival increased from 23% to 70%. There were 98 5-year survivors in 1970, and numbers may exceed 2,100 by the end of 2005. Most (at least 61%) survivors in the West Midlands Region have one or more chronic medical problems and may require multidisciplinary care. We conclude that, in order to determine how to provide cost-effective care for this increasing population, protocol delivered management with audit is needed.