Association of prevalent and incident knee cartilage defects with loss of tibial and patellar cartilage: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the association between prevalent and incident knee cartilage defects and loss of knee cartilage in male and female adults.
METHODS: A convenience sample of 325 subjects (mean age 45 years; age range 26-61 years) was evaluated at baseline and approximately 2 years later. Knee cartilage volume, cartilage defect scores (0-4 scale), and joint surface area were determined using T1-weighted fat-suppression magnetic resonance imaging techniques. Height, weight, and radiographic evidence of osteoarthritis were measured by standard protocols.
RESULTS: Multivariable analysis revealed that baseline cartilage defect scores at the medial tibia, lateral tibia, and patella had a dose-response association with the annual rate of change in knee cartilage volume at the corresponding site (beta = -1.3% to -1.2% per grade; P < 0.05 for all comparisons). In addition, an increase in knee cartilage defect score (change of > or =1) was associated with higher rates of knee cartilage volume loss at all sites (beta = -1.9% to -1.7% per year; P < 0.01 for all comparisons). Furthermore, a decrease in the knee cartilage defect score (change of less than or equal to -1) was associated with an increase in knee cartilage volume at all sites (beta = 1.0% to 2.7% per year; P < 0.05 for all comparisons).
CONCLUSION: Prevalent knee cartilage defects are predictive of compartment-specific cartilage loss over 2 years. Both increases and decreases in knee cartilage defects are associated with changes in knee cartilage volume, which implies a potential for reversal of knee cartilage loss.