Development of the metabolic syndrome in black and white adolescent girls: a longitudinal assessment.

BACKGROUND: The metabolic syndrome, associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, begins to develop during adolescence.
OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify early predictors of the presence of the syndrome at the ages of 18 and 19 years in black and white girls.
METHODS: Using longitudinal data on participants from 2 centers in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Growth and Health Study, a 10-year cohort study, we applied cutoffs from the Adult Treatment Panel III to document changes in the prevalence of abnormal syndrome elements and the syndrome in girls aged 9 and 10 years, when cases were rare, and those aged 18 and 19 years, when prevalence had reached 3%. Longitudinal regression models identified early predictors for the presence of the syndrome.
RESULTS: Only 1 girl of each race had > or =3 factors at ages 9 and 10 (0.2%), but 20 black girls (3.5%) and 12 white girls (2.3%) had the syndrome 10 years later. Low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was prevalent throughout the period in both black and white girls. The prevalence of other variables was low at enrollment but increased during follow-up, except for abnormal triglyceride levels in black girls, which remained low throughout follow-up. In multivariate models, early measures of waist circumference and triglyceride level were significant predictors for development of the syndrome.
CONCLUSION: The strong association of central adiposity with the development of the metabolic syndrome suggests that early interventions aimed at managing preteen obesity could reduce risk of developing the syndrome.