Cardiac events after heart transplantation: incidence and predictive value of coronary arteriography.

Cardiac events from graft arteriopathy, including myocardial infarction, heart failure resulting from previous myocardial infarction, and sudden death, may limit long-term survival after heart transplantation. To determine the incidence of cardiac events and the use of coronary arteriography in predicting these events, the long-term results (mean follow-up, 3.5 years; standard deviation +/- 2.0) of heart transplantation in 427 patients were reviewed. Cardiac events included 19 cases of myocardial infarction, 13 cases of sudden death, and 10 cases of congestive heart failure. All these events occurred after the first year except for three cases of sudden death and one case of myocardial infarction. Cumulative incidence of cardiac events per patient year was 0.9% within the first year, increasing to 1.9% by 5 years. Cardiac events accounted for 3.8% of the deaths by the end of the first year, rising to 18% of total mortality by 7 years after heart transplantation. In patients dying after the first year of transplantation, deaths from sequelae of coronary artery disease occurred in 36% (20/55). The relative risk ("odds ratio") of any cardiac event was 3.44 (p less than 0.05) in patients with angiographic evidence of obstructive disease compared with those without evidence of disease, risk of cardiac death 4.6 (p less than 0.05) and risk of sudden death, 2.4 (not significant). Of the 13 patients who died suddenly, five seen at autopsy were found to have had a recent myocardial infarction. Of all patients who died of heart disease, recent myocardial infarction was detected in nine who were seen at autopsy.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)