Application of predictive microbiology to assure the quality and safety of fish and fish products.

Predictive microbiology offers an alternative to traditional microbiological assessment of food quality and safety. The concept is that a detailed knowledge of the microbial ecology of a food product can be expressed as a mathematical model to enable objective evaluation of the effect of processing, storage and distribution operations on microbial development. Experience to date indicates the need initially to derive a mathematical model in laboratory studies, to validate the model in food products and to incorporate the information into monitoring devices. These may be chemical or physical indicators or electronic integrators or loggers. To enable a correct decision on quality or safety, it is essential that the response of the monitoring device to environmental changes mimics exactly that of the organism of concern. Most monitoring devices currently available record temperature history, but not other environmental factors that influence growth and that, in some circumstances, change during storage. The next generation of monitoring devices may be required to monitor several parameters to take full advantage of increasingly accurate and sophisticated models.