How many human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected target cells can a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte kill?

The antiviral role of CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection is poorly understood. Specifically, the degree to which CTLs reduce viral replication by killing HIV-1-infected cells in vivo is not known. Here we employ mathematical models of the infection process and CTL action to estimate the rate that CTLs can kill HIV-1-infected cells from in vitro and in vivo data. Our estimates, which are surprisingly consistent considering the disparities between the two experimental systems, demonstrate that on average CTLs can kill from 0.7 to 3 infected target cells per day, with the variability in this figure due to epitope specificity or other factors. These results are compatible with the observed decline in viremia after primary infection being primarily a consequence of CTL activity and have interesting implications for vaccine design.