BACKGROUND: The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001. SETTING: Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: 4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study. MEASUREMENTS: The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] > or = 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2). RESULTS: The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age. LIMITATIONS: These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.
BACKGROUND: The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001. SETTING: Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: 4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study. MEASUREMENTS: The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] > or = 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2). RESULTS: The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI > or = 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age. LIMITATIONS: These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.
Authors: Joyce W Tang; Robert F Kushner; Kenzie A Cameron; Brent Hicks; Andrew J Cooper; David W Baker Journal: J Gen Intern Med Date: 2012-03-09 Impact factor: 5.128
Authors: Véronique L Roger; Alan S Go; Donald M Lloyd-Jones; Emelia J Benjamin; Jarett D Berry; William B Borden; Dawn M Bravata; Shifan Dai; Earl S Ford; Caroline S Fox; Heather J Fullerton; Cathleen Gillespie; Susan M Hailpern; John A Heit; Virginia J Howard; Brett M Kissela; Steven J Kittner; Daniel T Lackland; Judith H Lichtman; Lynda D Lisabeth; Diane M Makuc; Gregory M Marcus; Ariane Marelli; David B Matchar; Claudia S Moy; Dariush Mozaffarian; Michael E Mussolino; Graham Nichol; Nina P Paynter; Elsayed Z Soliman; Paul D Sorlie; Nona Sotoodehnia; Tanya N Turan; Salim S Virani; Nathan D Wong; Daniel Woo; Melanie B Turner Journal: Circulation Date: 2011-12-15 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Véronique L Roger; Alan S Go; Donald M Lloyd-Jones; Robert J Adams; Jarett D Berry; Todd M Brown; Mercedes R Carnethon; Shifan Dai; Giovanni de Simone; Earl S Ford; Caroline S Fox; Heather J Fullerton; Cathleen Gillespie; Kurt J Greenlund; Susan M Hailpern; John A Heit; P Michael Ho; Virginia J Howard; Brett M Kissela; Steven J Kittner; Daniel T Lackland; Judith H Lichtman; Lynda D Lisabeth; Diane M Makuc; Gregory M Marcus; Ariane Marelli; David B Matchar; Mary M McDermott; James B Meigs; Claudia S Moy; Dariush Mozaffarian; Michael E Mussolino; Graham Nichol; Nina P Paynter; Wayne D Rosamond; Paul D Sorlie; Randall S Stafford; Tanya N Turan; Melanie B Turner; Nathan D Wong; Judith Wylie-Rosett Journal: Circulation Date: 2010-12-15 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Alan S Go; Dariush Mozaffarian; Véronique L Roger; Emelia J Benjamin; Jarett D Berry; Michael J Blaha; Shifan Dai; Earl S Ford; Caroline S Fox; Sheila Franco; Heather J Fullerton; Cathleen Gillespie; Susan M Hailpern; John A Heit; Virginia J Howard; Mark D Huffman; Suzanne E Judd; Brett M Kissela; Steven J Kittner; Daniel T Lackland; Judith H Lichtman; Lynda D Lisabeth; Rachel H Mackey; David J Magid; Gregory M Marcus; Ariane Marelli; David B Matchar; Darren K McGuire; Emile R Mohler; Claudia S Moy; Michael E Mussolino; Robert W Neumar; Graham Nichol; Dilip K Pandey; Nina P Paynter; Matthew J Reeves; Paul D Sorlie; Joel Stein; Amytis Towfighi; Tanya N Turan; Salim S Virani; Nathan D Wong; Daniel Woo; Melanie B Turner Journal: Circulation Date: 2013-12-18 Impact factor: 29.690
Authors: Charles M Psoinos; Julie M Flahive; Joshua J Shaw; Youfu Li; Sing Chau Ng; Jennifer F Tseng; Heena P Santry Journal: Surgery Date: 2013-02-27 Impact factor: 3.982
Authors: Wolfgang Lieb; Michael J Pencina; Katherine J Lanier; Geoffrey H Tofler; Daniel Levy; Caroline S Fox; Thomas J Wang; Ralph B D'Agostino; Ramachandran S Vasan Journal: Diabetes Date: 2008-10-17 Impact factor: 9.461