The prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in Texas: implications for future health care.

Chronic hepatitis C is often asymptomatic and undiagnosed yet can progress to liver failure or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study determined the prevalence of hepatitis C in Texas and estimated the progression of disease in this cohort. National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey III data on the national prevalence of an antibody to the hepatitis C virus were extrapolated to Texas using census data weighted for local characteristics. A Markov model estimated the progression of liver disease. Results showed that 387,395 Texans (1.79%) are infected with the hepatitis C virus. County prevalence varied from 1.25% to 2.63%, with higher rates concentrated along the US-Mexico border. However, most cases of infection were located near major Texas cities. The number of infected persons will decline in the future. However, the proportion of cases progressing to cirrhosis will increase, resulting in more complications such as liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. Thus, chronic hepatitis C is common in Texas and will result in an increase in complications of cirrhosis in coming years. The disease will tax health care facilities and transplant units in the state.