Risk factors for recurrent thrombosis: prospective study of a cohort of Japanese systemic lupus erythematosus.

Not only antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs) but also other factors should be considered in assessing the risk of thrombosis development in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs). The kinds of risk factors, including past history of thrombotic event (PHTE), hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus (DM), obesity, and smoking, in conjunction with aPLs, that contribute to the development of new thrombotic events in patients with SLE and aPLs were studied prospectively over a 5-year observation period. One-hundred and sixty-six Japanese patients with SLE (55 patients with aPLs and 111 patients without aPLs) were examined and followed up for 5 years. Five major risk factors for ischemic coronary disease and stroke according to the Framingham heart cohort study were evaluated objectively in these patients. A significant difference was seen for 4 factors: past history of thrombotic event (PHTE; odds ratio: 101.93; 95% confidence interval: 12.29-845.22; p < 0.0001), hypertension (odds ratio: 8.87; 95% CI: 2.58-30.53; p < 0.001), DM (odds ratio: 5.42; 95% CI: 1.44-20.46; p < 0.05), and lupus anticoagulant (LAC; odds ratio: 47.41; 95% CI: 5.88-382.03, p < 0.0001) as aPLs, when the incidence of these risk factors was compared between patients with and without new thrombotic events. Furthermore, PHTE (odds ratio: 30.19, 95% CI: 1.33-683.13), hypertension (odds ratio: 15.44; 95% CI: 1.77-134.80), and LAC (odds ratio: 14.11; 95% CI: 0.48-412.42) showed higher odds ratios than DM (odds ratio: 11.53; 95% CI: 0.83-159.94) on multivariate logistic analysis as well as analysis of the combination of risk factors, suggesting that these are important risk factors for the development of new thrombotic events in patients with SLE and aPLs.