The changing profile of the elderly: effects on future long-term care needs and financing.

Simulation techniques are used to analyze the changing profile of the elderly from 1990 to 2030. The results show that the future demand for long-term care services is likely to be greater than many realize. Increases in the number of elderly who are 85 years of age and older, who have health limitations, or who live alone are likely to outpace the general increase in the elderly population. Although there will be a very large group of elderly at risk, their economic status will be better than that of today's elderly population. The percentage of elderly who can afford insurance premiums for broad long-term care coverage will increase in the future, but most older Americans probably will not be able to afford insurance. Although policies that reduce the cost and encourage the purchase of long-term care insurance could help to expand coverage, a large long-term care financing gap is likely to remain for the future elderly population.