Non-invasive prediction of aluminum bone disease in hemo- and peritoneal dialysis patients.

Between October 1987 and October of 1989, we conducted a prospective study to evaluate non-invasive test strategies for predicting aluminum bone disease (ABD) in a group of largely unselected dialysis patients based on their deferoxamine (DFO) test alone, or the combined results of their DFO test and intact 1-84 parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels. These test parameters were evaluated against the pathological diagnosis of ABD based on bone biopsy ("gold standard"). A total of 445 patients in three dialysis centers in Toronto were serially followed for their clinical, laboratory and risk parameters for renal osteodystrophy during the study, and 259 (142 PD and 117 HD) patients underwent a series of investigations which included the DFO test, measurement of intact 1-84 PTH levels, and an iliac crest bone biopsy. Serum aluminum ([Al]) level greater than or equal to 3700 nM (or 100 micrograms/liter) had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 75% for ABD in our PD and 88% in our HD patients, but its sensitivity was low (10 and 37%). Delta [Al] (that is, incremental rise of serum [Al] from baseline post-DFO) was useful in predicting ABD in our PD but not HD patients. Test combination based on delta [Al] greater than or equal to 5550 nM (or 150 microgram/liter) and PTH levels less than 20 pM (or 200 pg/ml) yielded the best PPV greater than or equal to 95% for ABD in both PD and HD patients. This test cut-off would remain highly predictive of ABD even if the prevalence of ABD decreases to as low as 5% for the PD patients and 10% for the HD patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)