OBJECTIVE: To determine the probabilities of transition of stages in the cervical cancer by conducting a meta-studies on the topic. STUDY DESIGN: We identified health states of interest in the natural history of cervical precancer, identified all possible papers that could meet selection criteria, developed relevance and acceptability criteria for inclusion, then thoroughly reviewed the selected studies. To determine the transition probability data we used a random effects model. We determined probabilities for 4 health state transitions. The 6-month mean predictive transition probability (95% confidence intervals with "prediction interval" in parentheses) for high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) to cancer was 0.0037 (0.00004, 0.03386), for low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) to HSIL was 0.0362 (0.00055, 0.23220), for HSIL to LSIL was 0.0282 (0.00027, 0.35782), and for LSIL to normal was 0.0740 (0.00119, 0.42672). CONCLUSION: The transition probabilities between cervical cancer health states for 6-month intervals are small; however, the cumulative risk of cervical cancer is significant. Markers to identify the cervical precursors that will lead to the transition to cervical cancer are needed.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the probabilities of transition of stages in the cervical cancer by conducting a meta-studies on the topic. STUDY DESIGN: We identified health states of interest in the natural history of cervical precancer, identified all possible papers that could meet selection criteria, developed relevance and acceptability criteria for inclusion, then thoroughly reviewed the selected studies. To determine the transition probability data we used a random effects model. We determined probabilities for 4 health state transitions. The 6-month mean predictive transition probability (95% confidence intervals with "prediction interval" in parentheses) for high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) to cancer was 0.0037 (0.00004, 0.03386), for low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) to HSIL was 0.0362 (0.00055, 0.23220), for HSIL to LSIL was 0.0282 (0.00027, 0.35782), and for LSIL to normal was 0.0740 (0.00119, 0.42672). CONCLUSION: The transition probabilities between cervical cancer health states for 6-month intervals are small; however, the cumulative risk of cervical cancer is significant. Markers to identify the cervical precursors that will lead to the transition to cervical cancer are needed.
Authors: Timon P H Buys; Scott B Cantor; Martial Guillaud; Karen Adler-Storthz; Dennis D Cox; Clement Okolo; Oyedunni Arulogon; Oladimeji Oladepo; Karen Basen-Engquist; Eileen Shinn; José-Miguel Yamal; J Robert Beck; Michael E Scheurer; Dirk van Niekerk; Anais Malpica; Jasenka Matisic; Gregg Staerkel; Edward Neely Atkinson; Luc Bidaut; Pierre Lane; J Lou Benedet; Dianne Miller; Tom Ehlen; Roderick Price; Isaac F Adewole; Calum MacAulay; Michele Follen Journal: Gend Med Date: 2011-09-22
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