Significant difference in the trends of female breast cancer incidence between Taiwanese and Caucasian Americans: implications from age-period-cohort analysis.

Female invasive breast cancer (FIBC) in Taiwan is characterized by a striking recent increase of incidence and a relatively young median age (45-49 years) at diagnosis. The Westernization of lifestyle that is increasingly affecting younger generations of Taiwanese may have an important impact on this change. We compared epidemiologic data on FIBC in Taiwanese obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry with data for Caucasian Americans obtained from the database of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for the period from 1980 to 1999. Age-specific incidence rates of FIBC were plotted by calendar year at diagnosis and by birth cohort for both populations. The individual effects of time period and birth cohort on the incidence trends of FIBC in both populations were evaluated using the age-period-cohort analysis. The incidence rate of FIBC was continuously increased in Taiwanese throughout the past 2 decades, whereas the increase of incidence was slowing down in Caucasian Americans. The incidence rates in Taiwanese women born after the 1960s were approaching that of Caucasian Americans. The age-period-cohort analysis showed a much stronger birth cohort effect on the incidence trend of FIBC in Taiwanese than in Caucasian Americans. This strong birth cohort effect corresponded to the Westernization of lifestyle in Taiwan since 1960. These findings indicate that a continued shift in the incidence and age distribution pattern of FIBC in Taiwanese toward that of Caucasian Americans should be anticipated.