Estimating the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in the Norwegian HUNT 2 population according to the 2003 European guidelines: modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the high risk group for cardiovascular disease in a well defined Norwegian population according to European guidelines and the systematic coronary risk evaluation system.
DESIGN: Modelling study.
SETTING: Nord-Tröndelag health study 1995-7 (HUNT 2), Norway. PARTICIPANTS: 5548 participants of the Nord-Tröndelag health study 1995-7, aged 40, 50, 55, 60, and 65. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Distribution of risk categories for cardiovascular disease, with emphasis on the high risk group. MAIN
RESULTS: At age 40, 22.5% (95% confidence interval 19.3% to 25.7%) of women and 85.9% (83.2% to 88.6%) of men were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Corresponding numbers at age 50 were 39.5% (35.9% to 43.1%) and 88.7% (86.3% to 91.0%) and at age 65 were 84.0% (80.6% to 87.4%) and 91.6% (88.6% to 94.1%). At age 40, one out of 10 women and no men would be classified at low risk for cardiovascular disease.
CONCLUSION: Implementation of the 2003 European guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice would classify most adult Norwegians at high risk for fatal cardiovascular disease.