Factors affecting survival of hospitalised patients with COPD.

Factors determining in-hospital mortality and long-term survival of patients hospitalised with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are not precisely understood. The aim of the present study was to assess the parameters related to in-hospital mortality and long-term survival after hospitalisation of patients with AECOPD. Clinical and epidemiological parameters on admission in 205 consecutive patients hospitalised with AECOPD were prospectively assessed. Patients were followed-up for 3 yrs. Factors determining short- and long-term mortality were analysed. In total, 17 patients (8.3%) died in hospital. In-hospital mortality was significantly associated with lower arterial oxygen tension (P(a,O2)), higher carbon dioxide arterial tension, lower arterial oxygen saturation and longer hospital stay. The overall 6-month mortality rate was 24%, with 1-, 2- and 3-yr mortality rates of 33%, 39% and 49%, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed that long-term mortality was associated with longer disease duration (relative risk (RR) = 1.158), lower albumin (RR = 0.411), lower P(a,O2) (RR = 0.871) and lower body mass index (RR = 0.830). When the model was run for the time elapsed since first hospitalisation, it also appeared as statistically significant (RR = 1.195). These findings show that patients hospitalised with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have poor short- and long-term survival. Prediction of survival status may be enhanced by considering arterial oxygen tension, albumin, body mass index, disease duration and time elapsed since the first hospitalisation.