A potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in China.

There is growing consensus among climate modellers that the unusual global warming observed in the last decades of the 20th century is primarily forced by human activities, namely greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere. Global warming will trigger alterations in physical and biological systems, including shifts in the spatio-temporal distribution of disease vectors, but the nature and extent of these changes are poorly understood. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential impact of climate change and water resource development on the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. We employed two 30-year composite datasets comprising average monthly temperatures collected at 623 observing stations throughout China, spanning the periods 1961-1990 and 1971-2000. Temperature changes were assessed spatially between the 1960s and 1990s for January, as this is the critical month for survival of O. hupensis. Our database shows that January temperatures increased at 590 stations (94.7%), and that China's average January temperature in the 1990s was 0.96 degrees C higher than 30 years earlier. The historical 0-1 degrees C January isotherm, which was considered the approximate northern limit of S. japonicum transmission, has shifted from 33 degrees 15' N to 33 degrees 41' N, expanding the potential transmission area by 41,335 km2. This translates to an additional 20.7 million people at risk of schistosomiasis. Two lakes are located in this new transmission area that form part of the proposed South-North water transfer project. Climate change, coupled with water resource developments in China, may pose additional challenges for the control of schistosomiasis.