Prediction of gastro-intestinal absorption using multivariate adaptive regression splines.

Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and a derived method two-step MARS (TMARS) were used for modelling the gastro-intestinal absorption of 140 drug-like molecules. The published absorption values for these molecules were used as response variable and calculated molecular descriptors as potential explanatory variables. Both methods were compared and their potential use in quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) context evaluated. The predictive abilities of the models were studied using different sequences of Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV). It was shown that both types of models had good predictive abilities and that for the data used, MARS gave better results than TMARS. It could be concluded that both methods could be valuable for QSAR modelling.