The potential extent of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease: a study of the movement of animals and materials in Southland, New Zealand.

A survey of Southland farms was conducted to assess the potential for foot-and-mouth disease dissemination through normal movement patterns of farm animals and materials over a period similar to what would be expected from the time the virus arrived on a property to the time of diagnosis. Each farmer participating in the survey was required to complete a diary, recording all movements of people, animals and materials on to or off a farm during a 14-day period. The mean number of movements recorded per farm was 50. The distribution of movement distances showed the majority of movements occurred within the immediate neighbourhood of the origin, with 31.5% and 59.5% of all movements occurring within 5 km and 10 km respectively. In order to contain 95% of all movements, an area where movement was controlled would have to have a radius of 100 km. The data was then used to construct a spatial simulation model to study the movements off a hypothetical index farm. When secondary movements off primary destinations were included in the model, the mean number of movements to be traced to contain the disease was 100 (range 77-160) for a 14-day simulation period. The area required to contain 95% of all movements tended to increase slightly, depending on the length of simulation run. The mean number of high risk movements that occurred over the 100 km radius was 3.4.