María de Los Angeles Rodríguez-Gázquez1. 1. Salud Pública, Universidad de Alicante, Investigación de la Corporación Universitaria Lasallista, 32 A 75 Medellín, Colombia. mrodriguezgazquez@hispavista.com
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To describe and evaluate homicide mortality trends in the city of Medellin, Colombia, between 1975 and 2003. METHOD: Deaths from homicide between January, 1975 and December, 2003 were studied. With the aid of the SSS1 program, an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for ARIMA model construction. RESULTS: The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 13.2 x 10(5) (minimum 1.94 February 1977 and maximum 38.78 December 1992). A peak was observed in the central period of the series. Several models were studied and an ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 model was selected. CONCLUSIONS: Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality from homicide in the city of Medellín. The highest rates were found in the month of December.
OBJECTIVE: To describe and evaluate homicide mortality trends in the city of Medellin, Colombia, between 1975 and 2003. METHOD: Deaths from homicide between January, 1975 and December, 2003 were studied. With the aid of the SSS1 program, an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for ARIMA model construction. RESULTS: The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 13.2 x 10(5) (minimum 1.94 February 1977 and maximum 38.78 December 1992). A peak was observed in the central period of the series. Several models were studied and an ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 model was selected. CONCLUSIONS: Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality from homicide in the city of Medellín. The highest rates were found in the month of December.