Ten-year mortality and glucose tolerance status in an elderly Finnish population.

The aim of this study was to determine the 10-year mortality rate of an elderly population aged 70 years or over (n=379) with reference to glucose tolerance status, taking into account other determinants of excess mortality. The baseline examination during 1991-1992 included a postal questionnaire, a physical examination and a 2h OGTT, which was classified according to both the 1985 WHO criteria and the 1999 WHO criteria. Follow-up was continued until death or until 31 December 2001. 66% of men and 51% of women died within 10 years. In men, the cumulative mortalities were 84% for previously diagnosed diabetes, 67% for undiagnosed diabetes, 67% for impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and 60% for normal glucose tolerance (NGT). The corresponding percentages for women were 76, 52, 49, and 40%. Male gender, poor self-rated health and previously diagnosed diabetes were the most powerful predictors of mortality. When adjustments were made for age, gender, BMI, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, physical exercise and self-rated health, the estimated relative mortality rate was 2.0 (95% CI 1.5-2.7) among previously diagnosed diabetic subjects, 1.3 (CI 0.8-2.2) among undiagnosed diabetic subjects and 1.1 (0.8-1.5) among IGT subjects compared to NGT subjects. These relative mortalities were higher in women than in men. When abnormal glucose tolerance was pooled into one category, the OR for excess mortality was 1.4 (95% CI 1.1-1.9).