Simulation of the options for a national control programme to eradicate scrapie from Great Britain.

Because of the risk to public health posed by the potential presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep, there are plans to eradicate transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) from the British sheep population. We used a mathematical model for the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks to assess the efficacy of five control strategies at eradicating the infection from the national flock. These range from ram-genotyping schemes through whole-flock genotyping with selective culling to whole-flock slaughter. The impact of control was considered under three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie in GB: two in which scrapie is ultimately eliminated (with different median extinction times) and one in which scrapie remains endemic. Results suggested that it is feasible to eradicate scrapie from the British sheep flock, but that any national control programme will take decades to eliminate the disease and be costly. The most-effective strategy, measured in terms of the probability of eradication and time taken for eradication, was predicted to be whole-flock culling, which was effective under all three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie. Strategies involving whole-flock genotyping with selective culling were also effective, though they were predicted to take longer to eradicate scrapie than whole-flock culling. Ram-genotyping schemes were effective in some instances, but not for the scenario where scrapie remained endemic in the national flock. At low levels of reporting of clinical disease (< 20%) the probability of eradication within 100 years was predicted to be < 100% and, consequently, low levels of reporting could compromise the effectiveness of a control programme. Moreover, the predicted time taken to eradicate scrapie would increase markedly if the reporting compliance decreased.