Gastrointestinal stromal tumors in Iceland, 1990-2003: the icelandic GIST study, a population-based incidence and pathologic risk stratification study.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is a newly defined clinical and pathologic entity. This study examines the whole population-based incidence of GIST as well as pathologic risk stratification schemes. All patients diagnosed in Iceland with a gastrointestinal mesenchymal tumor over the years 1990-2003 were evaluated with an immunohistochemical panel including staining for c-kit. The age-adjusted incidence of GIST was calculated. Size, mitotic rate per 50 HPF and various other pathologic parameters were evaluated. Each tumor was categorized into 1 of 4 recently defined NIH risk stratification categories. Fifty-seven of the mesenchymal gastrointestinal tumors were positive for c-kit and therefore categorized as GIST. The annual incidence for the study period is 1.1 per 100,000. The median age of patients was 65.8 years and median tumor size was 4.6 cm. Only 2 of 35 gastric tumors fall into the NIH high-risk category while half of the nongastric tumors (11 of 22) fall into this high-risk category. Eight of the 57 tumors (14%) metastasized, 7 of which were nongastric. The positive predictive value for malignant behavior of the high-risk category is 46%. The negative predictive value of low- and very-low-risk NIH category is 100%. Pathologic predictors of malignant behavior are tumor size, mitotic rate, mucosal disruption, necrosis and high cellularity. Nongastric GISTs are clearly at much higher risk of a malignant behavior than gastric GISTs. This population-based GIST study estimates the incidence of GISTs at 1.1 per 100,000 and furthermore supports the NIH consensus categories for the prediction of malignant behavior of GISTs.