Prediction of first episode of panic attack among white-collar workers.

The purpose of the present study was to elucidate a longitudinal matrix of the etiology for first-episode panic attack among white-collar workers. A path model was designed for this purpose. A 5-year, open-cohort study was carried out in a Japanese company. To evaluate the risk factors associated with the onset of a first episode of panic attack, the odds ratios of a new episode of panic attack were calculated by logistic regression. The path model contained five predictor variables: gender difference, overprotection, neuroticism, lifetime history of major depression, and recent stressful life events. The logistic regression analysis indicated that a person with a lifetime history of major depression and recent stressful life events had a fivefold and a threefold higher risk of panic attacks at follow up, respectively. The path model for the prediction of a first episode of panic attack fitted the data well. However, this model presented low accountability for the variance in the ultimate dependent variables, the first episode of panic attack. Three predictors (neuroticism, lifetime history of major depression, and recent stressful life events) had a direct effect on the risk for a first episode of panic attack, whereas gender difference and overprotection had no direct effect. The present model could not fully predict first episodes of panic attack in white-collar workers. To make a path model for the prediction of the first episode of panic attack, other strong predictor variables, which were not surveyed in the present study, are needed. It is suggested that genetic variables are among the other strong predictor variables. A new path model containing genetic variables (e.g. family history etc.) will be needed to predict the first episode of panic attack.