Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of the ability of arterial ketone body ratio to predict graft outcome after liver transplantation--its sensitivity and specificity.

To evaluate the ability of arterial ketone body ratio (AKBR; acetoacetate/3-hydroxybutyrate) to predict graft prognosis after liver transplantation, the diagnostic value as a predictive index was compared between AKBR and conventional liver function tests using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The ROC curves were determined for AKBR, GOT, GPT, total bilirubin, serum lactate level, and prothrombin time, all of which were measured on the 1st and 2nd postoperative days in 88 cases of liver transplantation. Comparisons of the areas under the ROC curves between AKBR and other tests revealed the significant superiority of AKBR to other tests in predicting graft death within 1 month after transplantation. The present study suggests that AKBR can be used as an accurate index to predict graft prognosis after liver transplantation.