Lung function, smoking and mortality in a 26-year follow-up of healthy middle-aged males.

Lung function has been associated with mortality after adjusting for other risk factors; however, few studies have adjusted for physical fitness and reported separate analyses according to smoking status. In 1972-1975, spirometry, clinical and physiological parameters were recorded in 1,623 apparently healthy males aged 40-59 yrs. After 26 yrs of follow-up, the current authors investigated the association between baseline lung function and mortality, adjusting for smoking, physical fitness and other potential factors. By 2000, 615 individuals (38%) had died, with 308 (50%) of these deaths from cardiovascular (CV) causes. Forced expiratory volume in one second was a predictor of all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR) 1.10 per reduction of 10%) after adjusting for smoking, physical fitness, age, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and serum cholesterol. The corresponding multivariate RR was 1.07 for CV causes and 1.34 for respiratory death. In conclusion, in stratified analyses among current and former smokers, forced expiratory volume in one second % predicted was a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality and respiratory death among current smokers. Forced expiratory volume in one second % predicted was not associated with mortality among never-smokers.