BACKGROUND: The optimal allocation of scarce donor livers is a contentious health care issue requiring careful analysis. The objective of this article was to design a biologically based discrete-event simulation to test proposed changes in allocation policies. METHODS: The authors used data from multiple sources to simulate end-stage liver disease and the complex allocation system. To validate the model, they compared simulation output with historical data. RESULTS: Simulation outcomes were within 1% to 2% of actual results for measures such as new candidates, donated livers, and transplants by year. The model overestimated the yearly size of the waiting list by 5% in the last year of the simulation and the total number of pretransplant deaths by 10%. CONCLUSION: The authors created a discrete-event simulation model that represents the biology of end-stage liver disease and the health care organization of transplantation in the United States.
BACKGROUND: The optimal allocation of scarce donor livers is a contentious health care issue requiring careful analysis. The objective of this article was to design a biologically based discrete-event simulation to test proposed changes in allocation policies. METHODS: The authors used data from multiple sources to simulate end-stage liver disease and the complex allocation system. To validate the model, they compared simulation output with historical data. RESULTS: Simulation outcomes were within 1% to 2% of actual results for measures such as new candidates, donated livers, and transplants by year. The model overestimated the yearly size of the waiting list by 5% in the last year of the simulation and the total number of pretransplant deaths by 10%. CONCLUSION: The authors created a discrete-event simulation model that represents the biology of end-stage liver disease and the health care organization of transplantation in the United States.
Authors: Jingyu Zhang; Brian T Denton; Hari Balasubramanian; Nilay D Shah; Brant A Inman Journal: Med Decis Making Date: 2011-09-20 Impact factor: 2.583
Authors: Sumeyye Samur; Brian Kues; Turgay Ayer; Mark S Roberts; Fasiha Kanwal; Chin Hur; Drew Michael S Donnell; Raymond T Chung; Jagpreet Chhatwal Journal: Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol Date: 2017-06-17 Impact factor: 11.382
Authors: Eric S Orman; Maria E Mayorga; Stephanie B Wheeler; Rachel M Townsley; Hector H Toro-Diaz; Paul H Hayashi; A Sidney Barritt Journal: Liver Transpl Date: 2015-08 Impact factor: 5.799
Authors: Benjamin P Linas; Elena Losina; Annette Rockwell; Rochelle P Walensky; Kevin Cranston; Kenneth A Freedberg Journal: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Date: 2009-08-15 Impact factor: 3.731
Authors: Durai Sundaramoorthi; Victoria C P Chen; Jay M Rosenberger; Seoung Bum Kim; Deborah F Buckley-Behan Journal: Health Care Manag Sci Date: 2009-09
Authors: Jeffrey B Halldorson; Robert L Carithers; Renuka Bhattacharya; Ramasamy Bakthavatsalam; Iris W Liou; Andre A Dick; Jorge D Reyes; James D Perkins Journal: World J Transplant Date: 2014-09-24
Authors: Mark Roberts; Louise B Russell; A David Paltiel; Michael Chambers; Phil McEwan; Murray Krahn Journal: Value Health Date: 2012 Sep-Oct Impact factor: 5.725