Weight status in childhood as a predictor of becoming overweight or hypertensive in early adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which weight status in childhood or adolescence predicts becoming overweight or hypertensive by young adulthood. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We conducted a prospective study of 314 children, who were 8 to 15 years old at baseline, and were followed up 8 to 12 years later. Weight, height, and blood pressure were measured by trained research staff. Incident overweight was defined as BMI>or=25 kg/m2 among participants who had not been overweight as children.
RESULTS: More male subjects (48.3%) than female subjects (23.5%) became overweight or obese between their first childhood visit and the young adult follow-up (p<0.001). Being in the upper one half of the normal weight range (i.e., BMI between the 50th and 84th percentiles for age and gender in childhood) was a good predictor of becoming overweight as a young adult. Compared with children with a BMI<50th percentile, girls and boys between the 50th and 74th percentiles of BMI were approximately 5 times more likely [boys, odds ratio (OR)=5.3, p=0.002; girls, OR=4.8, p=0.07] and those with a BMI between the 75th and 84th percentiles were up to 20 times more likely (boys, OR=4.3, p=0.02; girls, OR=20.2, p=0.001) to become overweight. The incidence of high blood pressure was greater among the male subjects (12.3% vs. 1.9%). Compared with boys who had childhood BMI below the 75th percentile, boys between the 75th and 85th percentiles of BMI as children were four times more likely (OR=3.6) and those at above the 85th percentile were five times more likely (OR=5.1) to become hypertensive. DISCUSSION: High normal weight status in childhood predicted becoming overweight or obese as an adult. Also, among the boys, elevated BMI in childhood predicted risk of hypertension in young adulthood.