Literature DB >> 15756263

Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data.

R C Parslow, G R Law, R G Feltbower, P A McKinney.   

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Year:  2005        PMID: 15756263      PMCID: PMC2361896          DOI: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602432

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Br J Cancer        ISSN: 0007-0920            Impact factor:   7.640


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Sir, We read with interest the paper by Wartenberg using the US SEER data, to examine the population mixing hypothesis in relation to the aetiology of childhood leukaemia. We have previously examined this issue in the UK using ecologic (Parslow ) and case–control (Law ) methodology. In their paper, Wartenberg and colleagues suggest that our ecologic study (Parslow ) was of a similar type, and obtained similar results to those of Kinlen (1995). Unfortunately, this is not the case and our findings have been misinterpreted. Firstly, our study design and methodology are different: Kinlen has found increased incidence of childhood leukaemia in areas that had unusually high levels of population movements, principally involving unusual sociodemographic events such as wartime evacuation (Kinlen and John, 1994) in relatively small populations. In contrast, our studies have used large populations determined a priori (either Great Britain as a whole or Yorkshire) and have not selected rural areas with sudden increases in population mixing (e.g. Kinlen and John, 1994; Kinlen, 1995). Secondly, our investigations have used a well-defined, reproducible measure of population mixing. In addition, our exposure of interest, that is, population mixing, was derived from independently collected data sources. Our measure of population mixing is more comprehensive in comparison to crude changes in the size of a population as it includes an index of the diversity of inwards migration. The role of the diversity of migrants may contribute to the impact of population mixing on the level of circulating infections (Rhodes and Anderson, 1996). Thirdly, our results indicate that high levels of population mixing confer a protective effect for childhood leukaemia (Parslow ; Law ). We have suggested that this may be due to early establishment of immunocompetence in areas of high population mixing and would support the second step in the delayed infection hypothesis (Greaves, 1997). This proposes that common-ALL is an unusual response to a common infection, following an initial chromosome translocation event in utero, as a result of limited exposure to childhood infections. This misinterpretation of our study is not surprising: a plethora of papers exist in the literature that address the ‘population mixing hypothesis’. The definition of population mixing appears to vary by each investigation. Further research testing this hypothesis should provide a clear definition of the population mixing measure used.
  7 in total

1.  Persistence and dynamics in lattice models of epidemic spread.

Authors:  C J Rhodes; R M Anderson
Journal:  J Theor Biol       Date:  1996-05-21       Impact factor: 2.691

2.  Population mixing, childhood leukaemia, CNS tumours and other childhood cancers in Yorkshire.

Authors:  R C Parslow; G R Law; R Feltbower; S E Kinsey; P A McKinney
Journal:  Eur J Cancer       Date:  2002-10       Impact factor: 9.162

Review 3.  Aetiology of acute leukaemia.

Authors:  M F Greaves
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  1997-02-01       Impact factor: 79.321

4.  Childhood cancer and population mixing.

Authors:  Graham R Law; Roger C Parslow; Eve Roman
Journal:  Am J Epidemiol       Date:  2003-08-15       Impact factor: 4.897

5.  Wartime evacuation and mortality from childhood leukaemia in England and Wales in 1945-9.

Authors:  L J Kinlen; S M John
Journal:  BMJ       Date:  1994-11-05

6.  Epidemiological evidence for an infective basis in childhood leukaemia.

Authors:  L J Kinlen
Journal:  Br J Cancer       Date:  1995-01       Impact factor: 7.640

7.  Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data.

Authors:  D Wartenberg; D Schneider; S Brown
Journal:  Br J Cancer       Date:  2004-05-04       Impact factor: 7.640

  7 in total

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